Friday, March 18, 2011

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Bets of the week 19.-20. 03.2011.

19.03. (Sat) 16:00 Brentford - Leyton Orient

Leyton Orient set a club record midweek when a victory at Hartlepool made it 14 games without losing. The Londoners are in great form at the moment and as a result they have found themselves steadily climbing up the table. They are in seventh place currently and just five points off the play off places having failed to concede in the last four games.

Brentford have won just one of their last four home games. They have kept just four home clean sheets and generally look like a team that has nothing to play for as they seem to be safe from relegation. Russell Slade's side has a decent chance to win but as you cannot rule out the draw back the O's on the asian handicap.

Match Odds: Brentford 2.50, Draw 3.20, Leyton Orient 2.80

Tip: Leyton Orient level asian handicap @ 2.10 

19.03. (Sat) 19:00 Lorient - Saint Etienne

The Stade du Moustoir is traditionally a difficult place to visit for any team. Lorient are undefeated at home since September 18th and host a Saint- Etienne side who have dipped recently in their performances losing four of their last five.

Lorient will be kicking themselves last time out as they let a 1-3 lead slip away at Arles drawing 3-3 in the end. They are much stronger at home were they have won 10 out of the last 13 in all competitions. They are generously priced at just over evens to win and with striking starlet Kevin Gameiro in their ranks, they are more than capable of a victory. In March last year, they defeated Saint-Etienne 4-0 in the same fixture, although a repeat of that scoreline is unlikely, I will back them to win.

Match Odds: Lorient 2.05, Draw 3.10, St Etienne 4.0

Tip: Lorient to win @ 2.05

19.03. (Sat) 19:45 Heracles - Heerenveen

If you haven’t seen Frankfurt goal that ruined my tip last week, you should really look for it. Eintracht managed to score their first goal in 2011 in the most bizarre way possible, and Manuel Neuer will remember it for the rest of his career. Frankfurt failing to score this Saturday, at home to St Pauli, can’t be seriously recommended, since the visitors conceded on each of their trips outside Hamburg. However, opportunists should notice the odds are generous either, at 3.50.

Heracles win over Heerenveen is a very solid bet. The team from Almelo won eight of their 13 home games, losing just once (to Ajax). They are in superb form, winning last three league games and scoring no less than 16 goals in the process. The visitors are heading in the opposite direction. They somehow managed to gift rock-bottom Willem II their second win of the season, and then allowed Feyenoord to record their first away win. With just a single point from their last 4 fixtures, chances of Heerenveen losing in Almelo are much better that even-money.

Match Odds: Heracles 1.91, Draw 3.50, Heerenveen 3.50

Tip: Heracles to win @ 1.91

20.03. (Sun) 15:00 Udinese - Catania

Udinese top the form table in Serie A going into the weekend and are unbeaten in 12 games. The ‘entertainers’ of Italy's top flight, usually have goals in them with club captain Antonio Di Natale and Chilean Alexis Sanchez the star duo up front.

A keener look at their highlights demonstrates just how good they have been at the back recently too. The Udine side have not conceded in their last six games and have secured victories to nil in six of their last seven games. Francesco Guidolin's opponents are Catania who score well under a goal a game on average. Catania are poor away from the Stadio Angelo Massimino losing six of their last seven away games to nil and have not won away from home all season.

Match Odds: Udinese 1.50, Draw 4.0, Catania 7.0

Tip: Udinese to win to nil @ 2.37

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19.03. (Sat) 20:45 Palermo - Milan

DID YOU KNOW?

* Palermo have slipped to ninth in the Serie A table with 40 points from 29 matches and are nine points off the final Europa League slot.

* The Rosanero have lost five league matches in a row, conceding 15 goals in the process.

* Serse Cosmi’s side last scored on February 13 in their 4-2 home defeat to Fiorentina under Delio Rossi. Since then they have not scored in four matches.

* The Aquile would be placed ninth in the table based on home form and 10th on their away record.

* Palermo have scored 25 league goals at home and have conceded 21.

* Milan are the current leaders of Serie A with 62 points from 29 matches, five ahead of second-placed Inter.

* The Rossoneri have not won in their last couple of fixtures, having recorded a goalless draw with Tottenham Hotspur in London in the Champions League and then being held to a 1-1 draw by Bari at home last weekend.

* Massimiliano Allegri’s side have the best defensive record in the Italian top flight this season, having shipped just 21 goals in 29 matches.

* The Diavolo have the best away record in the championship, having collected 31 points in 14 matches on the road, losing just once.

* Milan will be without striker Zlatan Ibrahimovic, who is suspended.

LAST MEETING

November 10, 2010: Milan 3-1 Palermo

Milan conjured up a good 3-1 victory over Palermo at home in the reverse fixture. Alexandre Pato opened the scoring after 19 minutes but Armin Bacinovic restored parity just three minutes after the hour-mark. However, Zlatan Ibrahimovic put the Rossoneri back ahead on 77 minutes from the penalty spot and six minutes later Robinho scored to wrap up the points.

PROBABLE LINE-UPS

Palermo: Sirigu; Munoz, Goian, Migliaccio; Darmian, Bacinovic, Nocerino, Balzaretti; Pastore; Pinilla, Miccoli

Milan: Abbiati; Abate, Nesta, Thiago Silva, Antonini; Gattuso, Van Bommel, Flamini; Boateng; Pato, Cassano

Prediction
Palermo are in a wretched run of form while Milan too seem to have had their confidence fractured after their exit from the Champions League. This could prove to be a cagey and somewhat awkward affair, although it also has the potential to be a thriller. Expected a scored draw.
Palermo 1-1 AC Milan

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19.03. (Sat) 20:00 Barcelona - Getafe

DID YOU KNOW?

* Barcelona lead La Liga, with five points separating them from second placed Real Madrid, meaning that they will remain at the top of the table regardless of the result of this match.

* Los Cules have won all but one of their last five games, an away meeting with Sevilla last weekend, which finished 1-1.

* Barcelona have not gone without a win in two consecutive matches since May 2009.

* The Blaugrana have lost just one league game this season, a shock 2-0 home defeat to Hercules back in September 2010, their second game of the season.

* Interestingly, the only time Getafe have beaten Barcelona in the league in 13 meetings came under similar circumstances, by a 2-0 scoreline at the Camp Nou.

* If Barcelona fail to hit the back of the net, it will be the first time in 27 games.

* Lionel Messi has not scored in either of Barcelona's last two league games, but has scored in every one of his last four meetings with Getafe.

* Getafe sit in 11th place, with eight points in either direction seperating them from either relegation or Europa League qualification. Depending on the result of this match and others this weekend, Getafe could find themselves anywhere between ninth place and 14th.

* If the Azulones are able to pick up a win at the Camp Nou, it will be only their second victory in 2011 and their first away victory of the year.

* So far this season, Getafe have been dangerous from the most unlikely of set-pieces, scoring five goals from throw-ins, two more than any other side in La Liga.

LAST MEETING

November 7, 2010: Getafe 1-3 Barcelona

Lionel Messi, David Villa and Pedro put Barcelona 3-0 up, before Gerard Pique received his marching orders for a second bookable offence, a handball inside the box. Manu netted the resulting penalty to grant his side just a glimmer of hope, before Derek Boateng earned himself an early bath for his second yellow card, reducing both sides to just 10 players.

PROBABLE LINE-UPS

Barcelona: Valdes; Adriano, Pique, Fontas, Alves; Iniesta, Busquets, Xavi; Villa, Messi, Bojan

Getafe: Codina; Sanchez, Marcano, Diaz, Torres; Boateng, Casquero; Manu, Albin, Sardinero; Arizmendi

Prediction
Barcelona have looked surprisingly vulnerable of late with the absence of influential captain Carles Puyol, and with the injuries beginning to pile up, it would be brave to predict a huge win for them. Getafe have been in poor form since the turn of the year however, which should be enough to see the Blaugrana pick up all three points.

Barcelona 2-1 Getafe

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19.03. (Sat) 18:30 Everton - Fulham

DID YOU KNOW?

* Everton have a 100 per cent home record against Fulham in the Premier League, beating them on all nine meetings between the clubs at Goodison.

* The Toffees have the historical upper hand over Fulham, winning 28 of their 52 meetings. The west London side are trailing with 18.

* The hosts are the only side in the league not to have been awarded a penalty so far this term.

* Of the eight on target headers from Tim Cahill this season, six of them have found the net.

* Similarly, five of the six on target headers from Clint Dempsey have been goals.

* Fulham have the best disciplinary record in the league, with only 35 yellows and no reds so far this season.

* Based on second-half performances alone, Fulham are the fourth best team in the Premier League.

* Mark Hughes’ side are unbeaten on the road since January 26.

* Clint Dempsey has scored the final goal of a game more often than any other player in the league with five.

* The visitors are on a terrible run of form on the road, with only one win in 32 fixtures away from Craven Cottage.



LAST MEETING

September 25, 2010: Fulham 0-0 Everton

The Toffees left Craven Cottage at the bottom of the table having been unable to break down a Mark Hughes side that had started the season in fine fashion.

PROBABLE LINE-UPS

Everton: Howard; Neville, Jagielka, Distin, Baines; Coleman, Heitinga, Rodwell, Osman; Saha, Beckford.

Fulham: Schwarzer; Pantsil, Hangeland, Hughes, Salcido; Duff, Etuhu, Murphy, Dempsey; Johnson, Zamora.

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19.03. (Sat) 18:30 Borussia D. - Mainz 05

DID YOU KNOW?

* Borussia Dortmund are yet to lose at home to Mainz, with one win and three draws for Juergen Klopp's men.

* Since defeating Thomas Tuchel's men earlier in the season, Der BVB have always been ahead of Mainz in the standings.

* Current Borussia Dortmund coach Juergen Klopp was coach of Mainz from 2001 to 2008, achieving promotion to the Bundesliga with the Rheinhessen for the first time in their history. As a player he spent 11 years with Mainz, playing in 325 second division games.

* Borussia Dortmund have conceded three goals at home in their last 11 games at the Signal-Iduna Park, with none coming in their last three games.

* Mohamed Zidan, currently on the books of Borussia Dortmund, is the leading goalscorer for Mainz in a single season.

* Mainz have achieved nine away wins so far - more than in their last three seasons combined. The Oh Fives had never won more than three away games in a Bundesliga season.

* The Rheinhessen have taken the same amount of points out of their away games as Borussia Dortmund have won at home. They have even outscored Der BVB by four goals, but have conceded 14 goals more.

* Both Mainz and Borussia Dortmund have had their best season in the Bundesliga in their history so far.

* Current Rheinhessen coach Thomas Tuchel celebrated winning the 2009 German A-Youth Championship with Mainz with a 2-1 victory over Borussia Dortmund.

* Andre Schuerrle is one goal away from Borussia Dortmund's Mohamed Zidan's record of 13 goals in a season for Mainz.

LAST MEETING

October 31, 2010: Mainz 0-2 Borussia Dortmund

Mario Goetze and Lucas Barrios were on target as Borussia Dortmund leapfrogged high-flying Mainz to claim first spot, which they have not surrendered so far. Roman Weidenfeller was one of the heroes for Der BVB as he denied Eugen Polanski from the spot in the first half, preserving Juergen Klopp's men advantage before the restart.

PROBABLE LINE-UPS

Borussia Dortmund: Weidenfeller; Piszczek, Subotic, Hummels, Schmelzer; Bender, Sahin; Goetze, Lewandowski Grosskreutz; Barrios.

Mainz: Wetklo; Bungert, Svensson, Noveski, Fuchs; Polanski, Fathi, Soto; Ivanschitz; Risse, Schuerrle.

Prediction
Juergen Klopp's men will be looking to bounce back from their loss against Hoffenheim last week and so will Mainz. Thomas Tuchel's men rise to the occasion on their travels and will put up one hell of a fight, but Der BVB are likely to edge this one.

Borussia 2-1 Mainz