15.01.2011(Saturday)
15:30 Stuttgart - Mainz 05
The Bundesliga is back, and it’s gonna bring us many goals as usual. Amazingly, second from bottom Stuttgart, possess the best scoring record at home in the whole league – 22 in 9 games. That is largely down to their amazing thrashings of Monchengladbach (7-0) and Bremen (6-0), but Bruno Labbadia’s arrival will make things even more entetaining.
In his 3 first games in charge, all at home, no less than 33 goals were scored (5-1 over Odense in Europa League, and then 3-5 and 3-6 reverses against Bayern Munich in the league and in the DFB Cup). On Saturday they are playing Mainz, still in second place, whose away record is extraordinary, and they score goals at will, including 4-2 win at St Pauli in the last game in 2010. Over 2.5 goals at 1.90 is a somewhat bizarre line, and it’s not a bad idea to push it up.
Match Odds: Stuttgart 1.95, Draw 3.50, Mainz 3.75
Tip: Over 4.5 goals @ 5.95
18:00 Villarreal - Osasuna
Third-placed Villarreal have a formidable record at El Madrigal. They have been in the lead at half-time in all bar one of their home games this season. Saturday’s opponents are 15th placed Osasuna who have not won in six Primera Division matches.
This week there is even more bias towards this bet, as Osasuna has the worst away record in the league, having not won on the road and having lost seven out of nine away games. Los Rojillo has only mustered four away goals this campaign (three in one match against Valencia) and only one of these has appeared before the break.
Match Odds: Villarreal 1.44, Draw 4.20, Osasuna 7.50
Tip: Villarreal Half Time @ 2.05
20:00 Athletic Bilbao - Racing Santander
Athletic Bilbao let me down a couple weeks ago at home to Deportivo La Coruna in a 2-1 reverse. The scoreline did not tell the whole story as Bilbao dominated the game and spurned many opportunities. Since then Bilbao have drawn at home to Barcelona in the Copa Del Rey and got a late point at Malaga.
Bilbao are most effective at San Mames and have been a profitable favourite of mine in La Liga as bookmakers tend to underestimate them. They face a Racing Santander side that has lost eight out of 11 matches on the road this season in all competitions and have failed to score more than one goal in any away match they have played. San Mames is not a place for the faint hearted and I expect a home victory here.
Match Odds: Athletic Bilbao 1.73, Draw 3.60, Racing Santander 4.75
Tip: Athletic Bilbao to win @ 1.73
16.01.2011. (Sunday)
13:00 Sunderland - Newcastle United
Sunderland will be desperate to avenge that humiliating 5-1 Halloween defeat earlier in the season at St James Park. Steve Bruce's team currently have an outstanding home record having only lost once and conceded a miserly seven goals.
Newcastle on the other hand are proving to be one of the most unpredictable teams in the league away wins at Arsenal and Chelsea (albeit League Cup) but then dumped out of the FA Cup at Stevenage.
However, this is a very volatile derby and as they say “form can go out the window” it should also be noted that Newcastle have scored on their last 11 visits to their closest rivals.
Match Odds: Sunderland 2.15, Draw 3.25, Newcastle 3.50
Tips: Back over 2.5 goals @ 2.0/ Back Sunderland Correct Score 3-1 @ 17.0
