Sunday, June 19, 2011

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19.06. (Sun) 21:00 Jamaica - USA

After storming through the group stage with three wins, it’s easy to understand how the Jamaican national team has garnered so much attention for their play thus far in the Gold Cup.

It’s also easy to understand the frustrations of the USA fans after a rather unconvincing group stage. The forums and comment pages lit up after the USA’s 1-0 win over Guadeloupe, and if those who failed to watch the game formulated an opinion off the reactions of the masses, it was clear that the USA was completely outplayed, shouldn’t have won, and has no chance at reaching the Gold Cup final.

In reality, the win over Guadeloupe was a largely dominant performance for a team that simply had a horrendous night in front of goal. The USA had, depending on which set of statistics you believe, had about a 10 per cent advantage in terms of possession, got off 22 shots while only giving up six, and kept Guadeloupe from putting even one shot on target. In fact, aside from an early opportunity which deflected off the crossbar, the USA never really even gave Guadeloupe much of a chance to score.

Not that it was a good night for the USA. After all, 22 shots producing only one goal is unacceptable. But claims that the team lacked any real drive to finish off the match are contrary to all statistical evidence. Teams that aren’t trying to find goals generally don’t get off 20-plus shots.

“It’s still positive that we were able to create a good number of chances,” U.S. midfielder Michael Bradley said after the Guadeloupe win. “It’s important that as we move forward in this tournament, each game gets a little better, and each game we’re a little bit sharper. They don’t hand out a trophy after three games. It’s six games and the goal is at the end to be playing your best soccer.”


For Jamaica, the situation is actually reversed. A win over Honduras rounded out a perfect record in the group stage, and suddenly the expectations are soaring for a team that traditionally hasn’t been very good in the Gold Cup. A quick glance at Jamaica’s showing in the group stage would leave the casual observer very impressed.

But upon further examination, it becomes clear that while Jamaica have been good, they have also benefited greatly from being in the competition’s softest group. A 4-0 win over Grenada is nice, but the same Grenada side lost by six to Honduras and had to play the entire competition without their one quality player, midfielder Shalrie Joseph. Other than that the Jamaicans have been effective but unspectacular, racking up a 2-0 win over Guatemala and a 1-0 win over a Honduras side missing Wilson Palacios, Maynor Figueroa and Emilio Izaguirre, arguably their three best players, to clinch the group.

This is not to say that Jamaica does not deserve credit for playing well, or should not cause some moments of worry for the USA. The team has speed to burn and should be largely familiar with the USA’s style of play. However, like Honduras, the Jamaicans are missing a couple of key figures, and the group stage competition is not a very good barometer of where the team really stands in terms of the knockout rounds.

“I think Jamaica did really well,” midfielder Sacha Kljestan said of Sunday’s opposition. “They took nine points out of nine I think. Obviously I know quite a few of their players from being in Major League Soccer. So we’ve seen them play and we know how Caribbean teams play. They’re usually very skillful. Obviously we still think we’re the strongest team in Concacaf so we still have to go out there and play hard. We need to play harder and better than we have in the first three games, that’s for sure.”

The USA and Jamaica have a pretty long history on the pitch. Sunday’s quarter-final will mark the 18th time the countries have met, with the USA having won nine times and the teams having played to eight draws. The USA also holds a 29-10 advantage in terms of goals scored with Jamaica having only ever scored more than one goal in a match against the USA one time.

Despite the historical advantages for the USA the matches between these sides are generally very tight. The last time the USA and Jamaica squared off was in 2006, with the USA squeaking out a 1-0 victory.

Only on the rare occasion has the USA been able to walk away from Jamaica with a comfortable win, and Sunday’s match has all the makings of another classic between the two.

Prediction

  Jamaica 0-2 United States   

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19.06. (Sun) 20:45 Ukraine U21 - Spain U21

DID YOU KNOW?

Ukraine were runners-up in this tournament in 2006, their first ever participation in the Under-21 European Championships.

Ukraine were undefeated in their qualification group for this year’s tournament, winning four games and drawing four to top a group which also included Belgium and France.

Since qualifying for this tournament late last year, Ukraine won just one of their five friendlies in the lead-up to this competition - a 3-2 victory over Iceland.
Ukraine have played Spain three times at this level, having won one, drawn one and lost one so far.

Andriy Shevchenko made seven appearances for Ukraine's Under-21 side, scoring six goals.

Spain's Thiago Alcantara has twiced caused controversy at this tournament, first by claiming he had never heard of any of England's players and then by saying he doesn't dream of triumphing at Barcelona, but the midfielder has turned in two fine performances on the pitch and has completed 10 successful dribbles so far - more than any other player in the competition.

Spain will be going for their third title at this level, having won in both 1986 and 1998.

Juan Mata and Adrian Lopez, who linked up brilliantly for both of Spain's goals against Czech Republic, are from the northern province of Asturias, which also gave us David Villa and Formula 1 driver Fernando Alonso.

Like six of his players in Denmark (Bojan, Thiago, Jeffren, Martin Montoya, Ruben Mino and Alberto Botia), Spain coach Luis Milla came through Barcelona's famed La Masia youth system.


PROBABLE LINE-UPS

Ukraine (4-4-2):
Kanibolitskiy; Rakitskiy, Kryvtsov, Butko, Selin; Garmash, Holodyuk, Chesnakov, Beliy; Yarmolenko, Konoplienka.

Ukraine have picked up just one point in the tournament so far, having lost their opening match against Czech Republic last weekend and then shared the spoils in a goalless draw with England on Wednesday. Only a win in this match will therefore be good enough for the Eastern Europeans to progess to the semi-finals.

Talismanic captain Taras Stepanenko limped out of his side’s opening defeat to the Czech Republic with an injury to the adductor muscle in his thigh and will miss the rest of the tournament. But Ukraine were much improved in the last match and coach Pavlo Yakovenko is set to name an unchanged side for this crucial game.

Spain (4-3-3):
De Gea; Montoya, Botia, Dominguez, Didac; Javi Martinez, Ander Herrera, Thiago; Mata, Adrian, Muniain

Spain are all but qualified and can even advance to the semi-finals with a defeat in this match. However, La Rojita will be going after a win to ensure progress as Group B winners.

Coach Luis Milla has said he has no plans to rotate, so expect the same XI from the impressive win over Czech Republic on Wednesday night.

If Spain get off to a good start, though, Bojan could be an early substitute as Milla looks to boost the striker's confidence after he played just 10 minutes in the opening two matches, having been expected to be an important player in this tournament.

Prediction
Ukraine need to win this match to progress to the last four, but Spain looked ominously impressive in the 2-0 win over Czech Republic on Wednesday and will be keen to advance as Group B winners.

Playing like this, it is hard to see anyone stopping La Rojita and Ukraine will have to remain solid at the back, probably even more so than in the goalless draw against England on Wednesday, as well as improving in attack. It all seems unlikely and Spain should win fairly comfortably again.
Editor's Prediction
Ukraine Under 21 0-2 Spain Under 21