Friday, July 15, 2011

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16.-18. 07. 2011. Copa America, Quarter Finals

Colombia - Peru

Looking good for the favourites in the quarter finals, but maybe one or two of them are a bit underpriced. Colombia are not one of them. I have backed Colombia to win the tournament and they have so far lived up to my expectations but Peru will be no pushovers. Their qualifying campaign for the World Cup 2010 was a complete disaster and I expected Peru, without their aces Farfan and Pizarro, to struggle big time in this Copa America competition. I was 100% wrong. OK,it could be that they will have more problems playing open football, the kind of football that I should think that we will see in the quarter finals. Well, we already saw this brand of football the other day. Peru fielded a reserve side against Chile, but for this match their big guns, including Guerrero and Vargas, will all be back. Defender Carmona will be suspended.

Open football should favour the Colombia giants Falcao and Guarin. Not that there is anything wrong with the Colombian defence. They have yet to concede a single goal. Colombia have the better team and they also have these outstanding individuals and they should win this quarter final.

Argentina - Uruguay

Beating the young Costa Rican talents comfortably was nothing to write home about - but you sense that it was a major confidence booster for the Argentine side. Messi needed to play a strong game, their forwards needed to score a couple of goals and I do think that Argentina will only get better after their 3-0 win vs. C Rica.

A cynic would say: They have only defeated the Costa Rican second choices. Maybe they are right, but a strong home team, in this case Argentina, will always be the team to beat in the tournament.

Surely coach Batista will continue with Messi in a free, offensive midfield role and with Aguero, Higuain and Di Maria from the start. Confirmed! Argentina will be unchanged. Lavezzi will sit out his suspension .

Cavani, the Uruguay forward, is still training individually and hopefully he will be fit for this quarter final. It is a knee injury and I have serious doubts. Caceres will be back to play, but his defensive colleague S Coates will be suspended. Forlan did everything but score for Uruguay in their last game, vs. Mexico and he is bound to find the target pretty soon. Why not in this match? Time for Uruguay to play a strong game after some rather mediocre displays, but at the same time I expect more from Argentina as well. Both sides on the score sheet will be my suggestion and Argentina the winners after the 90 minutes.

Brazil - Paraguay

Maybe they were not brilliant, but at last I enjoyed watching Brazil playing their football again. I am of course referring to their 4-2 win against Ecuador. Their much over rated keeper J Cesar played with his Vaseline gloves again, but offensively Brazil looked strong, with both Pato and Neymar scoring their goals. And what a difference Maicon made, replacing D Alves as wing back. I still hold Cesar responsible for the Brazil loss against Holland in the World Cup in South Africa.

Paraguay have yet to win a game in this Copa America, but they were only minutes from defeating Brazil in the group stage. Santa Cruz was involved in both their goals, but I cannot imagine that he will be fit for this quarter final. He suffered an injury against Ecuador. I am no doctor, but it did not look good. A better Brazil for this match and they will reach the semi final.


Chile - Venezuela

Venezulua have been constantly underestimated. I am a sucker for speed. Not that kind of speed. I mean fast footballers. I like the way that Venezuela keep changing the pace, when they are going forward. Rondon, Oroszo, players with great future. Arango, Cesar Gonzalez, Miku and Maldonaldo, all started on the bench, when Venezuela played their last group game (3-3 vs. Paraguay).

They will be back in contention for this match and once again Venezuela have a squad free from injuries.

Also Chile rested players in their last group game, in fact six of their regulars. All will be back, apart from the suspended Beausejour for this quarter final. Vidal will replace Beausejour on their midfield. Carmona and Medel will also start, maybe fit again M Fernandez as well. Valdivia will be used as a substitute. Chile play some very nice football, no doubt about that, but they are not the most effective side around. Quite an open game in my opinion. I expect goals from both parties. Over game in other words. The winners? I have to include one outsider in my bets. OK, Venezuela then.

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17.07. (Sun) 00:15 Argentina - Uruguay

DID YOU KNOW?

Argentina escaped Group A with five points, finishing in second place.

The host nation could only manage one goal from their first two games in the competition, but they came alive in the last game against Costa Rica, winning 3-0.

Striker Sergio Aguero is the leading scorer in the tournament with three goals, including a brace against Costa Rica.

This will be Argentina's second game in Santa Fe in the Copa America. They drew 0-0 against Colombia in their first appearance in the province.

The winner of the contest will face the victor of Colombia and Peru in the semi-finals in La Plata on Tuesday.

Uruguay finished second in Group C with five points, two behind winners Chile.

The leading scorer on the team in the tournament is not Forlan, Suarez or Cavani; it is defender Alvaro Pereira, who has two goals.

A win would clinch Uruguay's fifth straight appearance in the semi-finals.

The last meeting that took place between the two sides was in October 2009 when a Mario Bolatti goal six minutes from time clinched Argentina's qualification to the World Cup in South Africa.

Cavani will not play as he is still recuperating from a knee injury suffered against Chile in their second game. The striker did not play in the 1-0 victory over Mexico.


PROBABLE LINE-UPS

Argentina:
Romero; Zabaleta, Burdisso, G. Milito, Zanetti; Gago, Mascherano; Aguero, Messi, Di Maria; Higuain.

No changes for Argentina as Sergio Batista calls the same line-up that earned a 3-0 victory against Costa Rica last time out.

Uruguay:
Muslera; M. Pereira, Lugano, Victorino, Caceres, A. Pereira; Gonzalez, Perez, Rios; Forlan, Suarez.

Oscar Tabarez will look to Diego Forlan and Luis Suarez to find the net against their neighbors as they are shorthanded with the absence of Edinson Cavani, who is still recovering from injury.

Prediction
Anything less than winning the tournament would be a failure for Sergio Batista's men. Now in the quarter-finals, Argentina should get a step closer to their dream with the potent attack of Lionel Messi, Gonzalo Higuain, Sergio Aguero and Angel Di Maria. If they can create chances at the same pace they did against Costa Rica, the host nation should be able to put a few away and advance past Uruguay. 
Editor's Prediction
Argentina 2-1 Uruguay

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16.07. (Sat) 21:00 Colombia - Peru

DID YOU KNOW?

Colombia won Group A with seven points, sending them to Cordoba for the quarter-final contest.

The South Americans are the only team not to have conceded thus far in the Copa.

In the last two competitive meetings, Colombia won one and drew the other against Peru in the Conmebol 2010 World Cup Qualifiers.

A win would take Colombia to their first semi-finals since 2004 when they lost to Argentina 3-0.

Falcao is Colombia's top scorer with two goals after bagging a brace in the 2-0 win over Bolivia to finish out their group stage matches.

The winner of the contest will play the winner of Argentina and Uruguay in the next round for a spot in the final.

Peru advanced to the quarter-finals as the top third-placed team with four points.

The Peruvians have made the quarter-finals six consecutive times in the Copa America.

Peru have not made it to the semi-finals since the 1997 tournament when they beat Argentina 2-1 in the quarter-finals before losing 7-0 to Brazil in the last four.

Paolo Guerrero has scored both of Peru's goals in the tournament so far.

PROBABLE LINE-UPS

Colombia:
Martinez; Zuniga, Yepes, Perea, Armero; Sanchez, Guarin, Aguilar, Moreno, Ramos; Falcao.

Colombia will opt for the same starting XI that earned a 2-0 victory over Bolivia in their last outing, with star striker Radamel Falcao leading the attack.

Peru:
Libman, Acasiete, Vilchez, Carmona, Rodriguez; Vargas, Cruzado, Labonton, Balbin; Guerrero, Advincula.

Juan Manuel Vargas and Paolo Guerrero are the main changes from the squad that fell 1-0 to Chile. The stars are back after receiving a breather in the final game having already qualified for the quarter-finals.

Prediction
Colombia's defence has been the best out of any team thus far in the Copa America. If they can make it four consecutive games without allowing a goal, the attack led by Radamel Falcao should be able to convert on a couple chances and secure their participation in the semi-finals.
Editor's Prediction
Colombia 2-0 Peru