Sunday, October 31, 2010

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31-10-2010 15:30 Mainz 05 - Borussia Dortmund

Less Rock And Roll, More Championship Mettle

Rather appropriately from a team based in one of Germany's biggest carnival cities, there has been a fun factor about Mainz this season. The Bruchweg Boys have put smiles on the faces of many neutrals and made many friends along their path to the top of the Bundesliga. There will have been those who cringed at Lewis Holtby and Andre Schuerrle's attempts to rock and roll on German television but Thomas Tuchel's youngsters have been living it up on the pitch all season and enjoying almost every minute.

There is a deeper and more serious side however to Mainz's ascent. When any team is on a roll, if you'll excuse the pun, confidence remains high and the results continue to flow. Yet after taking the knock of a home defeat to the a wily and experienced Hamburg outfit, Mainz showed impressive character to win in the Bay Arena against potential title rivals Bayer Leverkusen. They find themselves again needing to bounce back tomorrow after a surprise cup defeat to border team Alemannia Aachen.

"Football is still played by human beings. Just because we beat Leverkusen, that does not mean we automatically have to beat second division Aachen. The cup has its own rules, that's part of the charm of the thing," remarked Tuchel in the pre-game press conference.
"So I do not understand that it should be an embarrassment for us just because we now beaten the smaller club. We have been giant-killing for weeks now in the league, "he continued.

Rather intriguingly, Tuchel then admitted to perhaps choosing the wrong strategy for the game. Mainz's success has been built upon a unique approach to every match, with considerable player input. Such public self-admonishment is not the sign of a coach who feels his team are temporary squatters at the top of the league. It will be interesting to see whether Tuchel can pluck another rabbit out of the hat, as he did with Andreas Ivanschitz last weekend. Otherwise, Dortmund have an array of players ready to pounce and reclaim the top spot.

 
Back On Familiar Territory

It has been far from the smoothest week in Dortmund as Der BVB first stumbled to a draw at home to an admittedly impressive Hoffenheim and were then eliminated on penalties in the DFB-Pokal by 3.Liga leaders Kickers Offenbach, whose general manager is none other than Dortmund legend Andreas Moeller. Yet, while it is easy to focus on the negatives, it is expedient to remember that despite a mediocre showing against Hoffe, Dortmund ground out a point (albeit with some controversy) in stoppage time. My colleague Clark Whitney astutely made the point that Dortmund do not know how to manage their way through a game, especially one in which it is not all one-way traffic but that they dug out a slightly undeserved point is reminiscent of Bayern Munich over the years.

Before the start of the season, Klopp made it clear that he was prepared to rotate in order to nurse the players through not only a potentially packed fixture schedule, but also to ensure they can have sufficient rest periods due to Dortmund's all-action style of play, which demands they cover as much ground as possible during the game. Shinji Kagawa is a player who is evidently not accustomed to this intensity in Japanese football and has shown signs in recent games of going off the boil. How Klopp shuffles his pack in the coming weeks up to the winter break may well determine their ability to truly sustain a title assault well into the spring. First though, he must pick his charges up from their surprise midweek cup elimination.

"We had to deal with a rather nasty evening. We have to taste defeat on occasions in order to have the drive to avoid such a repeat in the future," Klopp admitted in the pre-game press conference.

Klopp made reference during his remarks about Mainz's flexible tactical approach but he also pointed out that no matter what system they play, their style of play is rather similar to Dortmund's energetic brand of football and as such tomorrow's game will be won by the side who can out-do the other.

"We don't know exactly what we will be coming up against but we know what we must expect from the rightful leader of the Bundesliga. They are a side full of running, physically strong, very flexible and tactically very well set up."

"Mainz have the advantage of playing at home. But we don't feel outsiders at all."

TEAM NEWS

Mainz

 
Thomas Tuchel has not been a manager averse to rotation, much like his opposite number at Dortmund Klopp. He looks set to rest trio Niko Bungert, Miroslav Karhan and Lewis Holtby after the midweek cup defeat to Aachen. Mainz are without injured quintet Florian Heller, Heinz Mueller, Jan Simak, Zsolt Loew and Eugen Gopko.

Probable Starting XI: Wetklo - Zabavnik, Svensson, Noveski, Fuchs - Caligiuri, Polanski, Soto - Allagui, Schuerrle - Szalai

Borussia Dortmund


Juergen Klopp boasts one of the Bundesliga's deepest and broadest squads and it will be tested to the full in the coming weeks. Sebastian Kehl, Tamas Hajnal, Florian Kringe and Mohamed Zidan are all out. Patrick Owomoyela has not yet fully recovered from his injury and there are major doubts over Sven Bender and Jakub Blaszczykowski. Mario Goetze, Antonio da Silva and Marcel Schmelzer all look to have recovered from minor knocks picked up over the last week.

Probable Starting XI: Weidenfeller - Piszczek, Subotic, Hummels, Schmelzer - Sahin, Antonio da Silva - Goetze, Lewandowski, Grosskreutz - Barrios.


Prediction
I expect this to be a classic in terms of entertainment but perhaps the frenetic styles of both teams will lead to errors and fatigue deciding the outcome rather than sheer quality. Dortmund will face an extremely difficult task to win at the Stadion am Bruchweg but the presence of a motivated Robert Lewandowski to freshen up the attacking line may just tip the balance.

Mainz 2-3 Borussia

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31-10-2010 15:00 Bari - Udinese

Stopping The Rot

Bari are suffering from the ‘second season syndrome’ as after a very good time in the Italian top flight in 2009-10, the Galletti are fighting for survival. Currently stationed third from bottom in the league standings, Bari have just eight points from eight matches.

Bari are in a wretched run of form too at the moment as they have lost their last three league fixtures, conceding two goals each against Genoa, Lazio and Fiorentina. Having shipped in 13 goals, Giampiero Ventura’s side also boast of having the joint worst defensive record in the Italian first division.

However, Bari won against Torino in the Coppa Italia in midweek and will aim to win again on Sunday.

Mid-Table Mediocrity

Udinese are one of the favourites to go down to Serie B this season but are doing better than most would have expected them to. At the moment the Bianconeri are 11th in the table with 10 points from eight matches.
However, Francesco Guidolin’s side are just two points above the relegation zone and need to keep on picking up points. Last weekend Udinese accomplished a marvelous 2-1 win against Palermo at home and in midweek destroyed Padova 4-0 in their Coppa Italia third round tie.

Nevertheless, Udinese have to maintain disciple at the back as they have conceded 10 goals already in the league.


TEAM NEWS

Bari 

Romero and Raggi are injured and will miss the match. Barreto and Castillo will be the two strikers in a 4-4-2 formation.

Udinese

Basta and Ferronetti are injured while Coda is suspended. Di Natale and Denis will be the two strikers in 3-4-1-2 system.




Prediction
This doesn’t promise to be a very entertaining match and it could be scrappy. A win for Udinese is not very likely even though Bari are in miserable form. A goalless draw could be final outcome.

Bari 0-0 Udinese

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31-10-2010 14:30 Newcastle United - Sunderland

A Catastrophe Is Never Far Away

Newcastle United and speculation go hand in hand; only this week the club had to come out and flatly deny they were plotting against their manager Chris Hughton. His position seems safe for now, but a home defeat at the hands of Sunderland has seen off bigger characters – just ask Ruud Gullit.

Which seems odd, as Hughton has built a decent looking side on a shoestring at Newcastle. His team currently sit ninth in the table, only four points behind Champions League representatives Tottenham and one point behind Sunderland. It doesn’t take an A* in Maths to work out that a win over their rivals would see them leapfrog the Black Cats and give supporters a legitimate claim to being top dogs in the North East. Not much at stake then.

Swings And Roundabouts

It’s a tired old cliche, but in the case of derbies form really does go out the window. Which is a shame for Sunderland, as they are unbeaten in seven league games and have kept a clean sheet in each of their last three Premier League matches.

It’s not all bad news for the Black Cats, as the last time they won a game at St James’ Park was back in November 2000 when none other than current chairman Niall Quinn got the winning goal in a 2-1 triumph over their rivals. In all, Sunderland have only won one of their last 10 games against Newcastle United and that was their first home victory against the Magpies in 28 years. Oh, and the Black Cats haven’t won an away game this season.

TEAM NEWS

Newcastle


Danny Simpson spent a spell on loan with Sunderland while playing for Manchester United, and the 23-year-old has returned to fitness in time for the derby. With James Perch looking suspect for the Magpies, expect Simpson to slot in at right-back for Newcastle.

Sol Campbell (thigh) looks set to miss out against the side he turned down this summer. Steven Taylor (shoulder) looks to have lost his battle to make the bench, and played no part against Arsenal in the midweek League Cup defeat.

Hatem Ben Arfa (broken leg), Dan Gosling (knee) and Steve Harper (collar bone) are all long-term absentees for Newcastle.

Probable Starting XI (4-4-2): Krul; Simpson, Williamson, Coloccini, Enrique; Barton, Tiote, Nolan, Gutierrez; Carroll, Ameobi

Sunderland


Kieran Richardson (hamstring) has trained this week but Steve Bruce is unlikely to risk the Englishman from the start. Instead, Phil Bardsley looks set to continue at left-back in a defence that has kept three clean sheets in a row.

Andy Reid is unavailable, after an emergency loan move to Sheffield United. Fraizer Campbell and David Meyler (both knee) are long-term injury concerns for the Black Cats.

Probable Starting XI (4-5-1): Mignolet; Onuoha, Bramble, Turner, Bardsley; Elmohamady, Cattermole, Malbranque, Henderson, Welbeck; Bent


Prediction
On paper Sunderland look good for an away win, but football is a funny game and Newcastle have a habit of grabbing early goals in the Tyne-Wear derby. Chris Hughton has fostered a strong sense of spirit in his side, and this may well see them through to three points on Sunday.

Newcastle 2-1 Sunderland

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31-10-2010 13:00 Aston Villa - Birmingham City

Houllier Has Proud Personal Record To Defend

Aston Villa may not be in the best of form, but their manager Gerard Houllier has a proud record to defend when it comes to derbies.

The Frenchman has not lost a single derby game in the past 11 years, with his last defeat coming at the hands of Everton in the Merseyside derby in September 1999 at Anfield. In his defence, Steven Gerrard and the goalkeeper Sander Westerveld were sent off in that game – which contributed to the Toffees beating their neighbours.

But Houllier never lost another Merseyside derby, and at Olympique Lyonnais his side did not lose to St Etienne.

And having brought out the best in his players when it comes to derby games, the Frenchman hopes to inspire his latest charges to a victory over their arch-rivals.

He said: “Derbies show a lot about the character of your players - you have to play good football but also fight and compete.”

Recent History Doesn’t Favour Birmingham

History is against Alex McLeish’s men in this tie, as they have lost their last six games against Villa – including last season’s 1-0 defeats at home and away.

But Birmingham have recovered from a six-match winless run, to register a victory over Blackpool that was followed by a League Cup victory over Brentford. This should have restored some semblance of confidence to the squad.

With towering forward Nikola Zigic finally beginning to silence his critics by scoring in his side’s last two Premier League games, this game will come as a firm test of his mettle.

TEAM NEWS

Aston Villa


Gabriel Agbonlahor (groin) and Stiliyan Petrov (knee) are sidelined through respective injuries, while Marc Albrighton is suspended after seeing a red in the recent League Cup victory over Burnley.

John Carew is recovering from an illness, while Luke Young is getting back from a hamstring injury. The pair are doubtful of featuring in the derby, but manager Gerard Houllier has hinted that Young may play some part. He would be in line for a start, as Habib Beye (ankle) remains a doubt.

Steve Sidwell will probably take Petrov’s place in the line-up, with Emile Heskey also likely to start after impressing in the Burnley game.

Possible starting line-up: Friedel, L Young, Collins, Dunne, Warnock, Downing, Reo-Coker, Sidwell, A Young; Ireland; Heskey.

Birmingham City


Alexander Hleb returns to fitness for the short trip to Villa Park, having recovered from a knee injury picked up during the game against Blackpool.

Jean Beausejour (knee) and Cameron Jerome (ankle) remain on the sidelines, while there are doubts over the fitness of David Murphy and Martin Jirnaek.

Michel is expected to be in contention after recovering from a minor knock during midweek, but it is unlikely that he will be handed a spot in the starting line-up for this game.

Meanwhile, Craig Gardner returns after serving a suspension.

Possible starting line-up: Foster; Carr, Johnson, Dann, Ridgewell; Larsson, Ferguson, Gardner, Fahey, Hleb; Zigic.


Prediction
The Second City derby should be a heated contest between the two sides, and Villa boss Gerard Houllier should be able to protect his derby record with a victory over Birmingham.

Aston Villa 2-1 Birmingham

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31-10-2010 12:30 Palermo - Lazio

Back To The Drawing Board

Palermo appeared to have resurrected their season and with three successive wins in all competitions, it seemed that they were on course to fulfilling their ambition to finish in the top four in Serie A. However, the Sicilians’ defeat to Udinese last weekend preceded by their 3-0 humiliation to CSKA Moscow at home in the Europa League has pushed them back to the drawing board.

At the moment Delio Rossi’s side are seventh in the table with 11 points from eight matches and are just two points off a Champions League place. However, Palermo’s form at home has been largely disappointing so far as they have won just once in front of their own supporters.

Nevertheless, Palermo have turned on the style in the big games and they will attempt to do the same on Sunday against league leaders Lazio.

Continuing To Fly

Lazio’s season seem to go from strength to strength as the Aquile continue to fly high in the sky. At the moment Edy Reja’s ferocious side are in pole position with 19 points from eight matches, two points ahead of second-placed Milan.

Last weekend the former Italian champions defeated Cagliari 2-1 in Serie A to extend their winning run in the league to four games. Then in midweek Lazio progressed to the fourth round of the Coppa Italia with ease as they beat Portogruaro 3-0 in Rome.

However, Palermo will provide a stiff test for Lazio and playing away from home will also be a disadvantage. Lazio do have very good players and they will have to step up their game against a Champions League-place chasing Sicilian side.



TEAM NEWS

Palermo

Liverani, Rigoni  and Miccoli are out injured for the home side. Pinilla is likely to the lone striker in a 4-3-2-1 system that will have Pastore and Ilicic as the two creative midfielders.

Lazio

Meghni and Cavanda are unavailable because of injuries. Edy Reja will deploy a 4-3-1-2 system that will have Floccari and Zarate as the two strikers with Hernanes playing just behind them. Brocchi, Ledesma and Mauri will be the three medios behind the Brazilian.



Prediction
This is a tough game to call and could go either way. Palermo have the potential to score and bag all three points but Lazio are in a great run of form and could just about carve out a narrow victory.

Palermo 1-2 Lazio