Friday, February 11, 2011

Ligue 1 Round 23 Preview 12.-13. 02. 2011.

Arles-Avignon – Montpellier

With a meagre nine points to their name this season, Arles-Avignon are consigned to relegation unless they are the recipients of some kind of miracle. Though they’ve struggled to pick up points, Faruk Hadzibegic’s side have been surprisingly competitive and worked Marseille hard in a 1-0 defeat at Stade Velodrome last weekend.

The home side are sweating on the fitness of a number of players, who will receive checks prior to the declaration of the squad.

Rene Girard’s Montpellier are on the fringes of what promises to be a manic race for the European spots. They’ve rarely shown convincing away form, but they did manage to overcome Nancy on their last road trip. Additionally, Emir Spahic and Cyril Jeunechamp both return from suspension, while there are no fresh selection problems.

Girondins de Bordeaux – Caen

The last time Bordeaux hosted Caen in a Ligue 1 encounter, it was the fixture that won them the 2008-09 league title. Les Girondins are well outside the race for the crown at present, but they’ve shown form enough in recent weeks to suggest they can mount a push for a Europa League berth.

A strong victory over Nice a fortnight ago was a real boost to the morale of all those around the club, and last weekend’s stoical 0-0 draw in Lyon was another plus. Caen should prove easier pickings, particularly since Jean Tigana has a full panel to choose from, barring the injured Henrique.

Caen have spluttered somewhat of late. A home win over Auxerre a fortnight ago carried them out of the relegation zone, but a 2-0 reverse against Lorient last weekend was a disappointing performance. Last time they visited the Stade Chaban-Delmas, they were consigned to relegation, and they will hope that does not prove a pointer towards doom on Saturday.

Monaco – Lorient

Laurent Banide probably only realised the scale of the task on his hands to prevent Monaco from sliding into the relegation zone last weekend. Pitted against Toulouse away from home, les Monegasques produced a thoroughly insipid performance, and had it not been for the excellence of goalkeeper Stefan Ruffier, their 2-0 reverse could have been a good deal more severe.

Monaco have lost Djimi Traore for the rest of the campaign due to serious injury, and new signing Moussa Maazou joined him on the sidelines at the beginning of last week. Selection problems are not the coach’s biggest headache – he needs to find a way of getting more from the players already at the club.

Christian Gourcuff, meanwhile, is expert at using his resources to the maximum. Les Merlus continue to float about the centre of Ligue 1, and though they’re not yet safe from relegation, they’re on the right route. No key players are expected to be missing for the guests, even if a handful of squad men are struggling.

Nancy – Auxerre

Both Nancy and Auxerre are in real danger of being sucked into Ligue 2 next season, and Saturday evening’s fixture at the Stade Marcel-Picot will go a long way to determining the future of both.

ASNL’s form of late has been utterly wretched, though coach Pablo Correa has been backed from the board. At least the fiery Uruguayan, who is Ligue 1’s longest serving boss, will have almost a complete panel to select from. Paul Alo’o and Gennaro Bracigliano are long-term problems, while Jonathan Brison was ruled out at the start of the week. Bakaye Traore is struggling.

AJA, on the other hand, have been decimated by selection problems, the latest of which is Swiss defender Stephane Grichting, who will miss around a month of action. With a wide array of other issues to cope with, the Burgundy side are once again badly stretched with regard to their first team panel, though their grit and determination allowed them to earn a fortunate draw against Lille last weekend.

Paris Saint-Germain – Racing Club de Lens

Title chasing PSG have this week received praise from Lens coach Laszlo Boloni, who stated that he feels les Parisiens have a stronger side than league leading Lille. Given that Lens were smashed 5-1 in the Coupe de France by the Parc des Princes outfit in January, the coach would be wise to talk up PSG’s abilities.

Les Rouge et Bleu weren’t left looking too smart last weekend, when they were given a bloody nose by Rennes in Brittany. Antoine Kombouare’s men struggled to fashion many openings against depleted opponents and ultimately slumped to a 1-0 reverse. Only Peguy Luyindula is an injury worry.

Lens have bounced back from that cup reverse earlier in the year impressively and are making a real fist of their relegation fight. They’ve lost only one match in four since their heavy defeat in the capital, though last weekend’s 1-1 draw with Valenciennes was a little disappointing.

Sochaux – Olympique de Marseille

If Didier Deschamps’ Marseille are to keep their Ligue 1 hopes alive, they will surely have to overcome a really stern challenge on Saturday night, when they travel to the Stade Bonal to face Le Championnat’s strongest home team in the shape of Sochaux.

Les Lionceaux have been surprisingly effective this season, losing only once in front of their home supporters and playing an exciting brand of attacking football. Francis Gillot may be handcuffed into continuing this thrilling approach on Saturday night as his two primary defensive midfielders, Carlao and Kevin Anin, are both missing. Jeremie Brechet is again absent from the heart of the rearguard.

OM are winding up for the Champions League in a couple of weeks, but their domestic form has been poor. Marseille’s recent record has been littered with draws, keeping them at a six-point distance from leaders Lille. Only Cesar Azpilicueta and Mathieu Valbuena sit out as Hilton has returned to training.

Stade Rennais – Nice

Frederic Antonetti’s Rennes side shot themselves into title contention last weekend by defeating PSG 1-0, and now the Corsican coach will lead the Breton club to face his former side, Nice.

A number of injury problems continue to riddle les Rouge et Noir, who shrugged off these issues impressively last weekend, with youngsters such as Yacine Brahimi and Samuel Souprayen coming to the fore in a memorable success. There has been no easing in Rennes’ crisis, with Sylvain Marveaux ruled out until the end of the season after undergoing knee surgery.

Nice, meanwhile, continue to fight hard against relegation. Eric Roy’s side are not right in the thick of the problems thanks to a win over Sochaux last weekend, but they are on the fringes of the issue and cannot afford a bad spell of form. No fresh problems are reported in les Aiglons’ camp.

Valenciennes – Stade Brestois

Over the past couple of weeks, Valenciennes have scored some important points to help them ease away from the worst of the relegation battle, and they’ll be hoping to maintain that positive momentum when they meet Brest on Sunday afternoon at the Stade Nungesser.

A fortnight ago, Philippe Montanier’s men scored a tremendous success when they beat Lyon 2-1 at home, showing defensive fortitude and offensive efficiency. During last weekend’s 1-1 draw against Lens, these qualities were less on display, but a return of one point was not to be sniffed at. Renaud Cohade continues to battle injury, along with Vincent Aboubakar and a number of long standing issues.

Having gone since November without a Ligue 1 win, Brest produced one of their best performances of the season last weekend to defeat Nancy 2-1. In the end, the score flattered the Bretons’ visitors, who had nearly held out for a point before Bruno Grougi’s wonderful free kick in the penultimate minute of the match. Key man Nolan Roux returns for the guests.

Lille – Toulouse

Ligue 1 leaders Lille are saved until last this weekend, with their fixture against Toulouse the final act of Round 23.

Les Dogues will be cursing their luck after a 1-1 draw in Auxerre last Sunday. Rudi Garcia’s men completely controlled that match for long spells, but a poor refereeing decision in the closing stages allowed their hosts to level up. LOSC have been strong at home this term, and with a full squad will hope to overwhelm le Tefece.

Alain Casanova’s side are no pushovers though. In recent weeks they’ve displayed admirable ball-retention skills, though at the same time they are badly lacking in cutting edge going forward. Long-term problems Xavier Pentecote and Yohann Pele remain their major issues going into the weekend.

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12.-13. 02.2011. Bets of the week (2)

12.02. (Sat) 16:00 Blackpool - Aston Villa
Well, this is an obvious one. There were three goals or more in ALL Blackpool home games this season. Both teams scored in all of them as well, so that's a nice option at 1.44. Frankly, with all the goals falling in the Seasiders' matches lately and keeping in mind the game at Villa Park ended 3-2, there is no reason not to push the odds higher for a chance of higher profits. Five goals or more is a tasty 4.33.
Over 2.5 goals between Blackpool and Aston Villa @1.53
Match odds: Blackpool 3.10, Draw 3.50, Aston Villa 2.20

12.02. (Sat) 16:00 Arsenal - Wolverhampton Wanderers
After the disaster at Newcastle, you can bet the Gunners will try to make the win absolutely certain. Sometimes four goals aren't enough, so three at home to Wolves is an absoluty minimum to keep Arsene Wenger from throwing water bottles in all directions. Who knows, they might even win the race at half-time, although doing it after 10 minutes as at St James' Park is hugely unlikely.
Arsenal to win the race to 3 goals versus Wolves @2.05
Match odds: Arsenal 1.25, Draw 6.00, Wolves 10.00

12.02. (Sat) 13:45 Manchester United - Manchester City
While all the eyes will be on Carlos Tevez (2.50 to score anytime), it's a great oppotunity for his expensive Bosnian partner to finally make his mark in the league. Dzeko is a great striker, potentially the best center-forward in the world and it will be much easier for him if he gets 'the monkey off his back' in the Manchester derby.
Edin Dzeko to score anytime @3.75
Match odds: Man United 1.73, Draw 3.75, Man City 4.50

12.02. (Sat) 16:00 Liverpool - Wigan Athletic
The Reds won four in a row without conceding a goal, and why shouldn't that streak continue? Wigan may be in a nice scoring form lately (who isn't in the Premier League?), but one must notice they failed to score at Old Trafford and at the Emirates this season. Liverpool to lead at halftime and win is an interesting 1.91 option.
Liverpool to win to nil @1.83
Match odds: Liverpool 1.36, Draw 4.50, Wigan 9.00

12.02. (Sat) 18:30 Sunderland - Tottenham Hotspur
With the trip to meet Milan at San Siro in the Champions League looming, one can assume Tottenham stars will not kill themselves on Saturday. Sunderland have a very good home record, and their defeat to Chelsea in the last game here only makes it better for them this time. The Black Cats haven't lost two home fixtures in a row since May 2009.
Sunderland - draw no bet @1.91
Match odds: Sunderland 2.80, Draw 3.30, Tottenham 2.50

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12.-13. 02.2011. Bets of the week

12.02. (Sat) 16:00 Liverpool - Wigan Athletic
After Raul Meireles hit his wonder strike at Wolves, Kenny Dalglish joked: "If he continues this way, he will win the Golden Shoe." Well, the Portuguese midfielder seems to have taken that comment seriously. Meireles has scored four times in the last five Liverpool games and interestingly three of those were first goals of the game, including the winner at Stamford Bridge last week. Scoring markets can be very conservative, since they generally take into account player's position and quality but not his current form. Thus odds on David Ngog scoring are shorter that those on Meireles and that really doesn't seem right!
Tip: Raul Meireles to score first @6.00
Match odds: Liverpool 1.36, Draw 4.60, Wigan 9.00

12.02. (Sat) 21:00 Saint Etienne - Olympique Lyonnais
This is one of the traditionally hottest derbies in France and impressively the teams are level on points and even have the same goal difference. Les Verts have a great home record with five wins and just one defeat in 10 matches, having scored in all of them. They are also coming into the fixture in good form, with wins in their last two games and their confidence will be sky-high remembering the lucky 1-0 win over their rivals away in the first round. Lyon took just a point from their last two games and they can hardly be considered favourites this time but the odds suggest differently. That's what we call a value bet, although the result is of course far from certain.
Tip: St Etienne to beat Lyon @3.10
Match odds: St Etienne 3.10, Draw 3.10, Lyon 2.40

13.02. (Sun) 15:00 Sampdoria - Bologna
Sampdoria's attack was one of the most feared in the league just a few months ago but those days look like history. Antonio Cassano's departure deprived them of creativity, Giampaolo Pazzini's sale to Inter left them without their best striker and poor Blucerchiati are having an absolutely miserable run of five games without finding the net. Dating back to mid-December, they failed to score in seven of their last eight Serie A matches. Bologna are in good form and they managed to draw 1-1 at Udinese two weeks ago, versus one of Italy's best attacking sides. Last week, they won 1-0 versus Catania. Given those stats, it just looks an amazingly good bet.
Tip: Bologna to keep a clean sheet @3.10
Match odds: Sampdoria 2.10, Draw 3.00, Bologna 3.90

13.02. (Sun) 17:00 Malaga - Getafe
Malaga have lots of money and a top coach in Manuel Pellegrini, but they are still bottom of the league and they've won just two of their 10 home games (losing seven). They are not lacking ambition but their ability to protect a lead is questionable in the extreme. Take a look what happened to them in January. Malaga took the lead against Bilbao in the 81st minute but only drew 1-1. Then they led twice at Valencia, only to lose 4-3 with nine men. Two weeks ago they opened the scoring against fellow strugglers Zaragoza and lost 2-1. Amazingly they even took the lead 1-0 on 65 minutes at Hercules in December but were thrashed 4-1. Getafe are a very unpredictable team and it's well worth mentioning that two of their three away wins (at Sevilla and Almeria) were achieved when coming from behind. Both rivals are Andalusians by the way, just like Malaga.
Tip: Getafe to come from behind and win or draw at Malaga @6.00
Match odds: Malaga 2.25, Draw 3.25, Getafe 3.20

13.02. (Sun) 20:45 Juventus - Inter
Since Leonardo was appointed as Inter coach the Nerazzurri became a goal-crazy team. Their attack, with Samuel Eto'o and Giampaolo Pazzini is superb and now that Wesley Sneijder is back from injury in absolutely astonishing form, it only got better. On the other hand, the defence without Lucio (not to mention Walter Samuel), is just dreadful. The stats in eight Leonardo league games read 24 goals for, 13 goals against. That's an average of 4.62 goals a game! Now keep in mind that Juventus have the worst defensive record in the whole league (yeah, that's not a mistake - 19 goals conceded in 11 is even worse than Bari and Lecce). Their home attack though is second only to Inter, and Alessandro Matri is in sparkling form. How about another goal-fiest at glorious odds?
Tip: Over 4 goals between Juventus and Inter @5.50
Match odds: Juventus 2.90, Draw 3.10, Inter 2.50

NEBOJŠA MILIČIĆ, TRENER U REALU (ŠPANIJA 1)

Niko, samim tim ni Hihon, ne može da parira Barseloni, a nadam se će moj Real uspeti da slavi na gostovanju Espanjolu, upravo u gradu koji nije ostao u lepom sećanju našim prvotimcima. Sve nas još peče poraz od 5:0 pretrpljen pre nekoliko nedelja na “Nou Kampu”.
HIHON – BARSELONA     2
ESPANJOL – REAL M.     2 

Malaga mora da igra na pobedu protiv Hetafea, Herkules će pokušati da savlada Saragosu, a Osasuna da ne izgubi na terenu Sosijedada.
Malaga – Hetafe     1X
Herkules – Saragosa     1X
Sosijedad – Osasuna     1X

Viljareal će pokušati da se vadi za poraz na svom terenu od Levantea (0:1) u gostima Deportivu.
Deportivo – Viljareal     X2

Ni Santanderu, a ni Sevilji, ne odgovara podela bodova. Slično važi i za duel Atletiko Madrida i Valensije...
Santander – Sevilja     12
Atletiko M. - Valensija     12

NEBOJŠA GUDELJ, SKAUT U HOLANDSKOJ BREDI

Tvente igra najlepši i najbolji fudbal u Holandiji, pa je trijumf nad Viteseom sigurica kola.
TVENTE - VITESE     1

Pobeda nad velikim PSV-om u gostima bila je Den Hagu četvrta uzastopna, a smeši mu se i peta, jer dočekuje skromni Venlo.
DEN HAG – VENLO     1

Treći fiks je Fejenord, koji bi posle četiri sušna kola, morao najzad da upiše tri boda protiv Heraklesa.
FEJENORD - HERAKLES     1