30.04.-01.05. 2011. Bets of the week

30.04. (Sat) 16:00 Greenock Morton - Dunfermline Athletic
Dunfermline will get promoted to the Scottish Premier League if they manage to get all three points available against Morton. Jim McIntyre's team will return to the top Scottish top flight after a four year absence and will be motivated to do so.

They should win against a Morton side that have performed really well at home this season. Morton have managed nine home clean sheets so far and only on four occasions have they conceded two or more goals on their own ground.

Mind you, Dunfermline haven't drawn any of their last four games, are unbeaten in their last 10 league matches and are on a eight-game away unbeaten run as well. Motivation and current form are pointing towards the away side who I think will just nick a win by the slimmest of margins.

Match Odds: Morton 3.50, Draw 3.50, Dunfermline 1.80
Tip: Dunfermline to win @ 1.80

01.05. (Sun) 13:00 Liverpool - Newcastle United
Confidence is high at Liverpool and the goals are flying in with the Reds scoring 11 times in their last three games at Anfield. Whether record signing Andy Carroll will be fit is uncertain, but the centre forward would certainly add some spice to the match against former club Newcastle United.

Historically this tie is full of goals and the last six meetings in the Premier League have all exceeded the overs mark, including the reverse fixture this season, which Newcastle won 3-1. But this Liverpool side is a very different outfit under Kenny Dalglish.

With the Reds aiming to overhaul Tottenham for fifth place and Europa League qualification there should only be one outcome at Anfield on Sunday.

Match Odds: Liverpool 1.50, Draw 4.20, Newcastle 6.50
Tip: Liverpool to win @ 1.50

01.05. (Sun) 17:00 Malaga - Hercules
An improving Malaga side under Manuel Pellegrini host Hercules this weekend. I had a bet on them last weekend to beat Santander at 3.0 and they duly delivered. Although Hercules have been better in recent weeks under their new coach, their away form remains abysmal. Malaga have the basis for a good side if they can keep it together and should have too much craft for Hercules.

Match Odds: Malaga 1.80, Draw 3.60, Hercules 4.33
Tip: Malaga to win @ 1.80

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30.04. (Sat) 20:00 Real Sociedad - Barcelona

DID YOU KNOW?

* After a positive start to the season, Real Sociedad find themselves being quickly sucked into the relegation battle after a poor run of four points from a possible 27.

* Their recent record against Barcelona is cause for concern as they’ve failed to win any of their last four home matches against the Catalans, losing two but drawing two.

* Sociedad’s last home win against the Camp Nou outfit came in 2002.

* No side in the Primera Division has lost more matches after going ahead this season than the Basques, who have achieved this unwanted feat six times.

* Barcelona in recent history have an excellent record against Sociedad, keeping eight clean sheets in a row against Saturday’s opponents.

* No team has ever managed to record nine successive shut-outs against the same opponents in the history of Spain’s top flight.

* Pep Guardiola’s side may have beaten Real Madrid 2-0 away from home on Wednesday in the Champions League, but two of their last three league games on the road have ended all-square.

* Lionel Messi has had a direct hand in five of Barcelona’s last six league goals, scoring four and creating the other.

* Messi scored his 51st and 52nd goals of the season against los Blancos in midweek, improving the new benchmark for strikes in a solitary Spanish campaign.

PROBABLE LINE-UPS
Real Sociedad (4-2-3-1): 
Bravo; Martinez, Ansotegi, Demidov, Estrada; Rivas, Aranburu; Prieto, Zurutuza, Griezmann; Ifran 

There has been little movement on the injury front for Zaragoza this week as they have not registered any fresh problems. Indeed, their squad could actually be in a stronger state than it was for last weekend’s derby loss against Athletic Bilbao as Joseba Llorente could return to action following a hernia problem.

The former Villarreal striker, even if he is passed fit, is unlikely to be risked from the outset and is liable to be restricted to a cameo role.

Barcelona (4-3-3): 
Valdez; Alves, Mascherano, Milito, Montoya; Thiago, Busquets, Keita; Jeffren, Villa, Afellay 

Given the state of play in the league, with Barca comfortably leading the table, Pep Guardiola may consider some squad rotation for Saturday’s difficult fixture in San Sebastian. Injuries to a number of players may prevent him from making the wholesale changes he might like, with Adriano, Maxwell, Eric Abidal and Bojan Krkic all missing. It would be a surprise if Andres Iniesta was to be risked.

After coming on to great effect in midweek, it is likely that Ibrahim Afellay will be given a significant chance to impress once more.

Prediction

Complacency is Barcelona's greatest worry going to Anoeta, which has proven an awkward venue for many sides in the past. Pep Guardiola generally primes his team well, and even sandwiched between two vital Clasicos, the Catalans will be expected to pick up the win, though keeping that ninth clean sheet may just be too much.

Real Sociedad 1-2 Barcelona

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30.04. (Sat) 18:30 Bayern Munchen - Schalke 04

DID YOU KNOW?

* Bayern Munich have won 10 of their last 11 home games.

* In the last 40 home games against Schalke, the Bavarians have lost just six times.

* That said, Bayern Munich last won against the Royal Blues at home in March 2007, losing twice and drawing twice.

* The Bavarians have scored at least one goal in their last 16 Bundesliga games. Bayern Munich last failed to get on the scoresheet at the Veltins Arena in a 2-0 loss to Schalke.

* Schalke have not won in five games, picking up just two draws.

* Ralf Rangnick last won against Bayern Munich three years ago with Schalke at home.

* The Royal Blues have scored just 35 goals in Munich. The Bavarians have recorded an astonishing 101 in their meetings.

* Should Schalke topple Bayern Munich, it will be Ralf Rangnick's 100th win in the Bundesliga.

PROBABLE LINE-UPS
Bayern Munich (4-2-3-1)
Butt; Lahm, Van Buyten, Badstuber, Contento; Tymoshchuk, Schweinsteiger; Robben, Muller, Ribery; Gomez

Andries Jonker's team will be boosted by the fact that Arjen Robben returns from suspension, meaning that Bayern Munich are going to field their most potent attacking force. Miroslav Klose will most probably be replaced by Thomas Muller in the role behind Mario Gomez, while Arjen Robben and Franck Ribery will take the right and left wings respectively.

Luiz Gustavo is suspended after picking up his fifth yellow card of the season, which means that Holger Badstuber will deputise for the versatile Brazilian.

Schalke (4-4-2)
Neuer; Uchida, Howedes, Metzelder, Escudero; Farfan, Papadopoulous, Kluge, Jurado; Raul, Edu

Ralf Rangnick is likely to field the same team that lost 2-0 at Veltins Arena to Manchester United in the first leg of the semi-finals of the Champions League. Benedikt Howedes, who missed the game against the English outfit in midweek due to injury, is likely to recover in time for the game at the Allianz Arena.

He will likely replace Joel Matip as partner of Christoph Metzelder at the heart of Schalke's defence. Sergio Escudero is likely to replace Hans Sarpei at left-back on the grounds that the ex-Bayer Levekusen man does not have enough pace to deal with swift attackers as shown against Manchester United.

Prediction

Bayern Munich need all the points they could get now, and will give their all to win this game. With a full-strength attack at Andries Jonker's disposal, the Bavarians are likely to break their recent negative record against Schalke at the Allianz Arena. The Royal Blues do not have much to fight for in the Bundesliga, and with a game in England on Wednesday, they are likely to put less effort in this match.

Bayern Munich 2-0 Schalke 04

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30.04. (Sat) 18:30 Chelsea - Tottenham Hotspur

DID YOU KNOW?

* Tottenham have a good record against Chelsea in recent years, having won two and drawn two of the side’s last five encounters in the Premier League.

* Blues forward Florent Malouda leads the way in the goal scoring charts between the two clubs with 13.

* Dutchman Rafael van der Vaart is a close second as Spurs' top goalscorer, having scored 12 so far in the campaign.

* Under-fire Tottenham keeper Heurelho Gomes had best be on his toes on Saturday, with Didier Drogba (pictured right) having fired the most shots this season with 91.

* Chelsea as a team have also taken the most shots, with 472 in total so far, while although only having a shot accuracy of 43 per cent, they have bagged 58 goals this term, the second highest to Manchester United.

* Had only second-half results counted in the table this season, Chelsea would be top of the pile on 57 points whilst Tottenham would be sat in a lowly 12th with 39.

* A similar pattern follows in the form guide, 16 points from 18 for the home side leaving them on top, and Spurs in 11th having won one and drawn five of their last six games.

PROBABLE LINE-UPS
Chelsea (4-4-2): 
Cech; Ivanovic, Luiz, Terry, Cole; Essien, Mikel, Lampard, Malouda; Drogba, Torres. 

Carlo Ancelotti has insisted both Fernando Torres and Didier Drogba can work together against Tottenham on Saturday, with the Italian likely to convert to a 4-4-2 formation.

Brazilian duo Ramires and Alex both remain sidelined through hamstring injuries, but Michael Essien looks set to recover from the knee problem he sustained at Stamford Bridge last weekend.

Tottenham (4-4-1-1): 
Gomes; Kaboul, Gallas, Dawson, Bassong; Lennon, Huddlestone, Sandro, Modric; Van der Vaart; Crouch. 

The away side are once again struggling on the injury front, with Benoit Assou-Ekotto, Gareth Bale and Vedran Corluka, joining Alan Hutton, Ledley King and Jonathan Woodgate on the sidelines. Expect Sebastien Bassong to fill in at left-back and Aaron Lennon to slot in on the wing.

Although Jermain Defoe has recently made signs he is coming back into form, Harry Redknapp may look to use Peter Crouch up top to hold up play and relieve the pressure from an on-song Chelsea side.

Prediction

If Ancelotti does decide to revert to 4-4-2, it could be a laboured start from the home side, with the formation showing little sign of working in previous outings.

Yet with a less than full strength Tottenham side that have stuttered in recent weeks, I expect the quality of what should be an upbeat Chelsea team to be the difference in a hard-fought encounter.

Chelsea 2-1 Tottenham

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30.04. (Sat) 18:00 Real - Zaragoza

DID YOU KNOW?

* After Jose Mourinho saw his side win their first 14 home league games of the season, Real Madrid have failed to win either of their last two, and were of course beaten by Barcelona 2-0 at the Bernabeu in midweek.

* Los Blancos have, however, never dropped a point after taking the lead in a Liga match this season.

* Remarkably, the nine-time European champions have only conceded once from an effort from outside the box – Jonas got that goal in the 6-3 success over Valencia last weekend.

* On each of the last three occasions Real Madrid have met Zaragoza, they’ve picked up maximum points.

* The omens are not promising for a change in Zaragoza’s fortunes as they have lost five of their last six league matches.

* Indeed, none of their last 14 clashes against los Blancos have ended positively.

* Only once all season have Javier Aguirre’s side managed to win on the road – the worst record in the league.

* Zaragoza’s meagre tally of 32 league goals is dwarfed by Real Madrid’s figure of 79.

PROBABLE LINE-UPS
Real Madrid (4-3-3):
Casillas; Ramos, Albiol, Pepe, Nacho; Diarra, Granero; Canales, Kaka, Benzema

Although Jose Mourinho has said that he feels Real Madrid are out of the Champions League, he will still conserve his top players for Tuesday’s rematch with Barcelona. Sergio Ramos and Pepe are both banned for that encounter and will hence feature against Zaragoza, but the squad is likely to be formed largely by the players who trounced Valencia 6-3 last weekend.

Sami Khedira remains the big injury problem for los Blancos, while Fernando Gago misses out too.

Zaragoza (4-2-3-1): 
Doblas; Diogo, Jarosik, Da Silva, Obradovic; Ponzio, Gabi; Boutahar, Lafita, Bertolo; Uche 

Nicolas Bertolo will be given until the last minute to prove his fitness after picking up an injury in Zaragoza’s previous fixture against Almeria. It is reported that Javier Aguirre won’t take any chances with the midfielder and could keep him in store for next weekend’s clash against Osasuna if he’s not in peak condition.

Ander Herrera was dismissed last weekend and will subsequently miss this fixture. Kalu Uche and Ivan Obradovic both return from bans.

Prediction

Real Madrid will be positively itching to get back to winning ways after Wednesday night, and they have the perfect opportunity against Zaragoza, whose form has been lamentable of late. Jose Mourinho may only play his reserves, but they showed last weekend that they are more than capable.

Real Madrid 3-0 Zaragoza

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