Zenit - Apoel Nicosia 1.50 - 8.98
The team that everyone, especially the bookmakers, continue to underestimate, Apoel from Cyprus. This time you can back them as 8.25 away outsiders. Apoel, bossing their group, have drawn their two away games and won their two home fixtures. In all honesty, who thought that they would obtain draws at Shaktar and Porto? Apoel are sweating on the fitness of their top striker Ailton. Defence man Boaventura is already sidelined.
Zenit have a 100% home record and they are motivated favourites but are hugely underpriced. Bystrov was back for Zenit in their last league game joining force with Bukharov upfront. Danny came on as second half substitute and only the injured Kerzhakov is missing at the moment. Home win, I guess, but unbackable.
Bate Borisov - V Plzen 2.04 - 4.13
Which side will play in the Europa League? Just to remind you that both sides will be 100% motivated for this game. The first encounter ended in a 1-1 draw in the Czech Republic.
Bate have more experience in Europe, but surely V Plzen, at least some of their players, will be full of confidence after the Czech victory in the play offs for the EURO 2012. I refer to their many Czech internationals. Missing, however, their central defender Cisovsky.
Backing the better odds. Away win.
Bayer Leverkusen - Chelsea 3.62 - 2.25
The Luiz penalty miss against Genk may prove costly for Chelsea, or it has at least complicated matters for them in this group. Chelsea are for once under huge pressure in Europe. A loss in this match and their remaining fixture against Valencia will be decisive, Champions League or the Europa League. Almost unthinkable. The Chelsea form is highly questionable, their coach does not seem to know his best eleven and Chelsea are playing rather slowly again, like last season. OK, I admit, maybe I am being too negative. I expect F Torres to play from the start tomorrow.
The home side is in healthy form and no one is better than the former Chelsea player M Ballack, playing together with Sam and fit again Schurrle on the midfield. L Bender will be joined by Reinartz or Rolfes on the defensive midfield. Bayer matched Chelsea for an hour or so in their previous meeting at Stamford Bridge (0-2 loss) and, right or wrong, they seem to fancy their chances in tomorrow’s game. X2 game.
Valencia - Genk 1.20 - 22.30
I expect Valencia to pick from the same squad that just about lost to Real Madrid at the weekend. It turned out to be a great game with Valencia losing the match 2-3. It will be about recharging their batteries again, but I cannot see Valencia having major problems in this match. They dominated away to Genk, missed numerous scoring chances, but at the end of the day the match ended in a 0-0 draw.
Genk drew 1-1 with Chelsea three weeks ago, but it is one thing obtaining a home draw and succeeding against top sides away from home. Joneleit, Grimi, Simaeys, Hubert and Benteke will miss this match. Too much at stake for Valencia. Home winner.
Arsenal - Borussia Dortmund 2.15 - 4.00
I never expected these quite decent odds on the home win and they have to be backed. I am of course well aware of the outstanding Borussia win against Bayern Munich at the weekend, but I have so far never seen a strong display in Europe from this German side, and definitely not in their away fixtures. Losses more or less everywhere these last two years. They conceded three goals away to Marseille, three against Olympiakos, both quite goal shy sides. Lewandowski, their front runner, backed up by Götze, Kagawa and Grosskreutz..
It looks like Arsenal for once will be able to pick from an unchanged squad. Gervinho, Walcott and of course Van Persie, they are in very good form at this instant. One late change. Diaby will come in for the injured Rosicky. Backing Arsenal.
Marseille - Olympiakos 1.62 - 7.00
This cannot be right. Only 1.62 on the home win? Marseille have to fight for every point this season and there will be no easy points to collect tomorrow either. Or, that is my stand point. Marseille could not score against Arsenal and they also failed to find the net in their first league game after the break, at Montpellier at the weekend (0-1 loss). They are not sparkling, but no denying their excellent situation in this group. They won away to Olympiakos 1-0, but at that time the Greek season had just started and Olympiakos looked very rusty. J Ayew upfront, I guess, supported by, among others, Valbuena.
Olympiakos drew 1-1 with Panathinakos a few days ago, a game they probably wanted to win more than tomorrow’s match. Orbaiz, starter against Panathinaikos, will not play in this match and also Makoun, substitute, will be missing. Also Ibagaza has been left out of the squad. No bet game for this writer.
Milan - Barcelona 5.00 - 1.84
Away win will be my call. Milan like to pass the ball around in Ibrahimovic tempo, rather slow in other words and in Serie A they can have it their way. It is not working against Barcelona, the supreme passing side in the world. Barcelona will dominate the ball possession and they are doing it much faster than Ibra’s Milan. This will lead to Milan using more long balls hoping for Pato to find a route to the Barca net. It has happened before.
In Barcelona Milan reached the most unlikely of draws, more or less outplayed and one of their goals was a Pato specialty. Ibrahimovic will probably find himself in no man’s land for most of the match.
Boateng will be back from his suspension for Milan, while Barcelona have to manage without the injured Iniesta and D Alves. Likely away win.
Shaktar Donetsk - Porto 2.60 - 3.02
Not much has worked for these two in Europe this season. Although Porto are two points ahead of Shaktar in this group, it looks like Porto and their coach have bigger problems at the moment. Their coach is in danger of losing his job after their hurting domestic cup loss at the weekend. Porto miss Guarin, A Sandro, Sapunaru and Mangala, but welcome back both Fucile and Rodriguez for this match.
Chygrynskiy remains on the Shaktar injury list, Srna will be suspended and Fernandinho’s fitness is a case for concern. I expect both Jadson and Fernandinho to play from the start tomorrow. I missed Rat and Eduardo in their squad at the weekend, but I do no think that they are injured. I prefer the home win alternative.
Chris
