Saturday, June 18, 2011

Clausura Preview Round 19

The Battle for Survival:
Independiente vs. Huracan
Gimnasia vs. Boca Juniors
Quilmes vs. Olimpo
River Plate vs. Lanus
Argentinos Juniors vs. Tigre
All games kick off Saturday June 18, 15:00 (20:00 CET)

After 37 games to pull themselves out of relegation danger, no less than six teams will be fighting on Saturday afternoon to avoid a place in either the direct relegation places or the promocion relegation playoff against a side from the Nacional B. There are a bewildering number of possibilities and outcomes for the teams involved; the three year average points table may not be the fairest way to decide a team's fate, but more often than not it ensures a nail-biting climax to the season.

Huracan, Gimnasia and Quilmes find themselves in the gravest danger, as marooned at the

The View from the Bottom
GPPts.Av.
Tigre1131431.265
River Plate1131411.247
Olimpo37451.216
Huracan1131251.106
Gimnasia1131241.097
Quilmes37391.054
bottom of the table the best they can hope for is a place in the promocion to save otherwise disappointing years. Ricardo Caruso Lombardi has done wonders with Quilmes after their case looked hopeless two months ago, but he knows that his side must beat fellow strugglers Olimpo, and hope both sides just above lose to have a chance of escaping a return to the second tier. Huracan meanwhile need only match Gimnasia's result to send them to oblivion.

In the fight for the final promocion spot, meanwhile, any one of River, Olimpo and Tigre could be left occupying the spot at 5pm Saturday. Calculators, patience and a deep breath will be necessary to explain the ramifications of this battle.

Anything less than a win for Olimpo would send them to the playoff, while a win means that at the very least they would play a tie-breaker with River to decide who goes down. A draw for the Millo would leave them safe if the Bahia Blanca side lose or tie. Only a defeat for Tigre coupled with wins for their rivals would see them drop into the promo, while a draw combined with victories elsewhere could set up an incredible three way tie-break unprecedented in the Primera Division.

Prediction:

It is fiendishly difficult to try and determine who will be celebrating and who will be mourning when the dust settles on Saturday afternoon. Quilmes, however, may just fall short against Olimpo and condemn themselves to the B. With Martin Palermo playing his last ever game against Gimnasia, trust the former Estudiantes player to upset his rivals and send them down directly alongside the Cerveceros. This would leave Huracan in the promocion, and River and Olimpo could well end up playing a decider after two wins.

Direct Relegation: Quilmes and Gimnasia
To the Promocion: Huracan and River/ Olimpo (below)

Saturday's Action

With the relegation battle taking all attention this weekend, Godoy Cruz's clash against the now-safe All Boys will receive very little attention. This is an injustice, however, on two teams that have performed admirably in 2010-11. The Tomba especially will want to end the Clausura with a bang, beating the Floresta team at home to try and pip Lanus to second place.

Sunday's Action

A fantastic run of results at the end of the season has seen Arsenal de Sarandi pull clear of the survival battle, and Gustavo Alfaro's team have even reached a place in the Copa Sudamericana. They can confirm it with victory over Estudiantes, who look set to pick Miguel Angel Russo as their new coach for the coming season after he was told that his Racing contract would not be renewed.

Elsewhere Newell's Old Boys and Colon play out a local Santefesino rivalry, which will hold little interest for anyone outside of the Argentine province after disappointing campaigns for both teams. Banfield and San Lorenzo play in Lomas de Zamora, before champions Velez Sarsfield plan their celebration at home against Racing Club in what will be Russo's last match on the bench. Disappointing in 2011, La Academia still have the chance to secure continental football with a victory, if Arsenal drop points against the Pincha.

Full Fixtures and Predictions


Independiente 1 1Huracan Sat 20:00
Quilmes 1 2Olimpo20:00
Argentinos 0 1Tigre20:00
Gimnasia LP 1 1Boca20:00
River Plate 3 1Lanus20:00
Godoy Cruz 2 0All BoysSun
01:10
Arsenal 1 0Estudiantes19:00
Colon 1 0Newell's OB20:00
Banfield 1 1San Lorenzo22:10
Velez 3 1RacingMon
00:30
Predicted scores in bold