The Premiership
Norwich - Arsenal
Open, free flowing football is what Norwich are all about, but can they afford to play like that against Arsenal? It may prove dangerous, as Norwich have conceded six goals in their last two games, vs. Blackburn and A Villa.Arsenal have won their last four league games, but worth noting is that three of these games have been home fixtures. The away win was of course the sensational 5-3 win against Chelsea. In fact the only away win so far in the league for Arsenal.
I do not think that Norwich will change their way of playing football and Arsenal will get their chances to hit Norwich on the break. Sounds like both teams will end up on the score sheet and Arsenal will probably be able to score one more goal than Norwich. Saying that I do not find 1.75 worth backing. The international break never did the top sides any good.
Everton - Wolves
Once again Everton disappointed this writer. Newcastle played without practically their entire regular midfield in the second half against Everton, but the Evertonians failed to take advantage of the precarious situation for the home side. Everton only missed the suspended Fellaini. He will be back for this match. P Jagielka will once again play after an injection. Everton are 1-1-3 at Goodison Park and Wolves have the same depressing statistics away from home. That is more like it should be, but Everton have a lot to prove in front of their desperate home fans.S Fletcher will be back for Wolves and they only miss their left back K Foley. It was a big win for Wolves against Wigan, but I would not say that they won the match thanks to their improved football. So Everton really ought to win against this limited Wolves side, but I have this aversion of backing Everton as big favourites.
Manchester City - Newcastle
Newcastle remain unbeaten in the Premiership and that is why the bookmakers offer us these marvellous odds on the home win. I am trying to be funny of course, because 1.33 is a joke. OK, we will have to wait and see which midfielders Newcastle will have available for this game, but what I know now is that Tiote and Marveaux will definitely be missing. Cabaye will play, both the Ameobis will be available, but both Obertan and L Best are major injury doubts.The City players have been active playing internationals during the break and I do not expect a vintage display from City tomorrow. They also have the Champions League to consider with Napoli (on Tuesday) next on their agenda. V Kompany will be back from his suspension.
No bet on the home win, that much I can say for now.
Stoke - Q P R
Playing in the Europa League has hurt Stoke. They have lost in the league after each of their midweek exploits. Going down 0-5 against Bolton after their visit to Israel cannot only be blamed on the Europa League, can it? Anyway I expect an improved display from Stoke tomorrow. They have so far only lost one league game at the Britannia stadium and not many Stoke players have been busy this week playing for their countries. Coach Pulis is hopeful that M Etherington, R Shawcross and M Wilson will all be fit to play.For the first time this season I was impressed by QPR. Although they lost to Man City 2-3 they played some great football and they will be extremely hard to beat at the Loftus Road from now on. Away from home? Not at all useless. They won with ease away to Wolves. I should think that Taraabt will be back for this game. I trust Stoke to play a fairly strong game this time, but 1.87 on the home win is too poor a price.
Sunderland - Fulham
Both are 2-4-5 after eleven rounds of league football. Not good enough! Both managers would agree. Fulham belong to the questionable category of �unlucky sides�. I say questionable, because basically there are no unlucky sides. Still Zamora could/should have won it for Fulham at home to Everton (now they lost) and how Fulham ended up losing to Tottenham is a bit of a mystery. Scoring goals is the tricky part for both sides and take away their 6-0 win against QPR, then you realise how goal shy Fulham have been this far.Sunderland have improved since Bendtner joined them. For this match defender O�Shea will return but important winger S Larsson will be suspended for this match. C Wickham and keeper Mignolet are out injured. Fulham will be without A Hughes, Grygera and S Kelly, all defenders. The draw will be my call and the odds are 3.36.
W B A - Bolton
S Cox was the only fit striker for WBA in their last league game away to Arsenal (0-3). Odemwingie and Shane Long along with P Scharner could possibly be back for this match. �They are long shots� according to their coach. We just have to wait and see then. After recent losses against Liverpool and Arsenal this game against more suitable opponents, Bolton, is more or less a must win game for WBA.Bolton happy to welcome a tired looking Stoke side to the Reebok Stadium certainly made the best of the situation, outclassing Stoke 5-0. Stoke lost to Sunderland 0-4 in a similar situation and I will not make too much fuss about this big win for Bolton. They finally won a home fixture and that was the best part. Yes, also C Eagles looking good. R Gardner will be back in contention for Bolton. I just have to see which players will return for WBA. They cannot be backed should both Odemwingie and S Long be missing again.
Wigan - Blackburn
A loss in this match would be devastating and that is a fact. The league situation would be almost impossible at this relatively early stage of the season for both Wigan and Blackburn.Looking at the last rounds there is no doubt that Blackburn are in better form. Rather strong home displays against Tottenham and Chelsea and then this hurtful 3-3 draw with Norwich.
Wigan defend poorly and their offensive players seem to lack all kind of confidence in the final third. Hopeless combination. Did you see the Rodallega miss against Wolves? Typical for Wigan this season. Will they be better in this six pointer game? They played some decent stuff against Wolves, but their end product was poor as usual.
Captain G Caldwell will be back hopefully strengthening the Wigan defence, but at the same time they lose his defensive colleague Alcaraz to a suspension. Chris Samba, the most important Blackburn player, is struggling with an injury but he is not ruled out, however. A late test will de decisive. J Lowe, the defender, is suspended but fortunately it looks like both M Salgado and S Dann will be able to make their come backs tomorrow. No Vukcevic and still no R Nelsen. Should C Samba not make it, I will back the home win.
Swansea - Manchester Utd
This will be fun. Swansea 3-2-0 at home and back from their recent 0-0 draw at Anfield. Why should they not be able to threaten United? After their 1-6 loss against Man City it has been rather obvious lately that United have tightened up defensively winning their last three games 1-0, 2-0 and 1-0. Impressive football? Not the way I see it, but I understand what they are doing. It was not only against Man City, they conceded three goals against Basel and something had to be done. Now Ferdinand and Vidic together is something else, is it not? Rooney on their midfield? Not my choice, but Ferguson usually is right. D Wehlbeck , T Cleverley and C Smalling will play this match, but A Young will be back in contention.Swansea have won their last three home games, but they did not face any of the better teams. This will be the big home test for this sweet passing side from Wales. S Dobbie and K Agustien are back to fitness again. May I be so bold to suggest something on Swansea?
Chelsea - Liverpool
D Drogba will be back after his suspension and the Chelsea squad is quite fit at the moment. The international break has affected both Chelsea and Liverpool, so no difference there. J Carragher will return to the Liverpool defence for this big fixture.I consider Chelsea a bit stronger than Liverpool, but in a single game the difference in quality is only marginal. Hopefully the Liverpool coach Daglish will not be too defensive in his approach for this game. I cannot see myself backing this 1.83 on the home win. Too poor a price. Maybe Liverpool after all.
Tottenham - Aston Villa
I always expect Tottenham to win at White Hart Lane. They are just not the same side away from their home fortress. This we could witness in their last match, away to Fulham, with Tottenham extremely fortuitous winning the match. Tottenham could be without the important Van der Vaart. I guess that we will see J Defoe playing from the start. Latest news indicates that Van der Vaart may well recover for this Monday fixture.Agbonlahor is struggling with an injury, but hopefully he will be fit for Villa, joining D Bent upfront. S Petrov is also an injury doubt and J Jenas in ineligible to play against his parent club. Villa are 0-4-1 away from home and I would not call 1.57 attractive odds on the home win. Spurs then!
Serie A
Inter - Cagliari
Definitely missing for Inter will be D Forlan, Chivu and Muntari. J Cesar, Nagatomo and Maicon are close to full fitness, but they will probably not feature in this fixture. Maybe keeper J Cesar, after all.The new Cagliari coach has to manage without his injured play maker Cossu. The Swede A Ekdal will probably be his replacement. El Kabir and Astori remain sidelined. The home win is the only possible alternative for this writer.
Fiorentina - Milan
One of my favourite Italian coaches Delio Rossi has replaced Mihajlovic at Fiorentina. He will have De Silvestri and Behrami back in his squad for this game. Jovetic, however, is a big doubt and Cerci is ready to step in. Both the defenders Natalai and Cassani will be missing.Pato and Nesta have recovered and even Gattuso has returned to training for Milan. Missing for this match will be the suspended Boateng.
It has rarely been easy winning at Fiorentina for Milan,or any other Italian top clubs for that matter and I can imagine that the Fiorentina players will be extra motivated tomorrow with their new coach and everything. Not to forget that Milan will play against Barcelona in a few days time. Still, it looks better for Milan. X2 game.
Napoli - Lazio
Will the Napoli players will be fully focused on this task? No guarantee. They will play at home to Man City on Tuesday and we all know the importance of that fixture. So far Napoli have had problems handling two big games per week. All too common a phenomenon for new Champions league participants. Squad wise they look OK, but both their aces Lavezzi and Cavani have been active playing for their countries this week. Gargano will play on their central midfield again alongside Inler.Mauri and the important duo Klose and Dias will not be fit to play for Lazio, but Biava, Rocchi and Stankevicius have all recovered. Key defender Dias will probably be replaced by Diakite, joining Biava (or Stankevicius) in the central defence. Rocchi is not 100% fit and could be that Cisse will play as the lone striker.
About the odds? Very tempting odds on the home win considering the important Lazio absentees. I will back Napoli tomorrow and then I will probably oppose them against M City.
Bologna - Cesena
The Bologna president has made his voice heard and openly declared that this game has to be won. Why he said that, I do not know, because it would not be the end of the world should Bologna lose it. For Cesena maybe, but not Bologna. Maybe their president just wants Bologna badly to win this hot derby game. The Bologna squad is in order for the match. Diamanti will start on the bench.Winless Cesena wecome back Guana, Colucci and Malonga , all likely starters. Martinho, Martinez and Ghezzal are not yet fit. Much at stake obviously. The draw! (3.30)
Catania - Chievo
Catania are almost always worth backing on the island. Unbeaten in Sicily they will have Biagianti, Alvarez and Llama back for this game, but Lanzafame, Izco and Suazo will not be available. Cesar and Jokic, both defenders, will return to the Chievo squad for this match. Catania to win.Genoa - Novara
The Genoa � Inter fixture was postponed. The Genoa squad was already quite fit for that game and they come this match full strength with Dainelli fit again. They only miss the suspended Kaladze. At home they are 2-2-0 and they are motivated big favourites against struggling Novara. Caracciolo and Palacio will go forward in this match.It looks like Novara will start with Jeda (or Rubino) and Meggiorini upfront this time. Morimoto is out injured along with defender Paci. I saw Novara losing on their synthetic pitch against Roma. They are supposed to be rather strong on their home turf, but against Roma they were mediocre. Are they worse than that on their travels, then how on earth should they survive in Serie A? Likely home win, but indifferent odds.
Juventus - Palermo
The Juventus defender Barzagli has been an injury doubt during the week, but he will be fit for this match. Matri will be their lone striker backed up by Pepe, Vidal and Vucinic.Palermo have to manage without their injured striker A Hernandez. Miccoli will play, but it does not look good for their third striker Pinilla. He will probably miss out on this game.
There are special sides and special sides, but Palermo are more special than the rest. Five wins on the bounce down in Sicily, but so far they have not scored a single goal away from home. Now for this game Palermo are definitely weakened offensively. Very likely home win, but once again, indifferent odds.
Parma - Udinese
Parma�s little wizard, their only real star at the moment, Giovinco, has not been fit to play for Italy. In midweek he was declared fit for this league game. That is great news for Parma. Parma without Giovinco? Almost unthinkable. Floccari will not play, but Biabiany should be OK.Udinese have a fully fit squad. Even their Brazilian striker Barreto is back in training. Di Natale must not play too often and this break must have done the Udinese sharp shooter some good. Isla will probably be rested and maybe Armero as well. Parma have the upper hand at home to Udinese, traditionally speaking, and I have problems accepting Udinese as away favourites. I rest my case.
Siena - Atalanta
The Tuscany based home side has won their last three home games and scored nine goals in the process. Yes, their overall standard so far surpasses at least my expectations. They have lost their leading striker Calaio (5 goals) for this match. Gonzalez is his likely replacement alongside Destro.Atalanta miss their suspended defender Masiello. Raimondi will probably play instead. Also Cigarini is suspended. The rest of the starting line up picks itself. No wonder, as Atalanta without their point reduction would be only one point behind Juventus in the table. 1X game.
Roma - Lecce
Both the Roma defenders Juan and S Kjaer will be available again, but Pizarro and Burdisso are out injured. Kjaer will probably play alongside Heinze in the central defence. Totti is finally fit again. Could start already in this game.Lecce miss among others the injured Di Michele and Giacomazzi. Muriel will sit out a suspension, but Obodo and Oddo will be back. Corvia on his own upfront. Without the red carded Muriel Lecce were able to win away to Cesena two weeks ago. It was a fantastic result for the club and it was in fact their second big away win this season. At home they are 0-1-4. Roma looked quite good in the second half away to Novara. Bojan scored a poachers goal and Roma at last seem to be heading in the right direction. Very likely home win.
La Liga
Osasuna - Rayo Vallecano
Backing the Osasuna home win. Their big loss against R Madrid (1-7) does not worry me. They lost to Barcelona 0-8 earlier this season and three days later they played against Sevilla. The match ended 0-0, but Osasuna were the much better side. OK, I would not like my team to lose 1-7, but it is not really my problem. Osasuna are 3-2-0 at home in Pamplona and that is important for me as a betting man.Their defender Satrustegui will be suspended for this game after his red card against Real Madrid. Sergio, Echaide and Masoud are injured, but Cejudo, Roversio, Lamah and M Bertran will all be available again. Look out for one of their forwards, Ibrahima.
Rayo are doing exceptionally well for a newcomer and they are one point ahead of Osasuna in the league table. Tamudo will not be ready for this game, but Tito, Botelho, Susaeta, R Garcia and R Bravo should be OK. Osasuna usually win against the right opponents and Rayo belong to that group. Home winner.
Sevilla - Atletic Bilbao
When I saw these odds my immediate reaction was to back the away win. Two evenly matched sides with A Bilbao in much better form, I thought. They played a great game in the rain against Barcelona (2-2) while Sevilla are winless in their last four league games.Now everything points to the very best Sevilla starting line up, as both Negredo and F Kanoute have been declared fit to play. At the same time A Bilbao will be without two suspended defensive players, Amorebieta and Iturraspe. San Jose could come in for Amorebieta if not Ekiza will recover in time for the match. J Martinez should be OK.
4.33 are still great odds, but maybe I will settle for the over bet instead. You can always rely on A Bilbao for goals and Sevilla, with their strikers available again, and usually very confident in their home games will play their customary offensive game again. Conclusion: over 2.5 goals.
Valencia - Real Madrid
When you look at these odds it is difficult to believe that Real are only four points ahead of Valencia in the league table. Valencia are 7-3-1 so far and no doubt that the home win is over priced this time? Will I bet on the home win? No can do. This writer is too impressed by Real, blinded by their many recent great wins. OK, Ronaldo, Benzema and many more Real stars have played important games for their countries this last week and they may not be at their very best tomorrow. I admit, it is an additional reason for backing the home win.Valencia will be without Canales, Maduro, E Banega and R Costa for this fixture. That is the way that it has been lately.
Di Maria is out for Real, but both Kaka and Marcelo will be available again. Ronaldo suffered an injury playing for Portugal, but he will recover. Will Mourinho play with two strikers, Benzema or Higuain, or just one of them? Not decided and Kaka from the start or not? Same situation. Away win, but the odds make it unbackable. I will probably be active on the live market during this game.
The Championship
Nottingham Forrest - Ipswich
Home win will be my choice. It looks like Nottingham will have both their wingers P Anderson and G McCleary back for this match. Together with fit again D Blackstock they played a preparation game earlier this week. Blackstock and Anderson both scored in that match. Also G Boateng could be back in contention.Ipswich will once again play with Ingimarsson and D Collins in their central defence, as I Sonko and D Delaney remain on the sidelines. The Ipswich defence has not exactly excelled lately conceding seven goals against Millwall and Doncaster. L Bowyer and N Ellington have recovered and they will be available for this match.
Having their wingers available again improves the Nottingham offence and my intention is to back the Nottingham home win tomorrow.
Barnsley - Doncaster
Once again I will be behind Doncaster. I would not say that 3.39 is a great price. My guess/or hope was something like 4.00 on the away win. Suffice it to say that 5.50 away to Ipswich was on another level betting wise. C Ikeme, the Wolves keeper, has just joined Doncaster and he will most likely be their goal keeper in this game.Barnsley have to do without the suspended Andy Gray and D Drinkwater, both important offensive players. I guess that Vaz Te (or fit again D Haynes) will replace Gray joining C Davies upfront. Maybe N Doyle will play on their midfield.
Hadji Diouf and Billy Sharp scored the three Doncaster goals against Ipswich and this new strike duo belongs to the strongest in the Championship. Backing the away win.
What about 5.89 on the Crystal Palace away win against Leicester! Palace will hand a debut to the Norwich striker Chris Martin, on loan for the club. Leicester, so disappointing all season long, miss D Vassell and S Bamba. Leicester are 4-0-4 at home and C Palace are 4-0-4 away from home. Then you know that the odds are not set right. Too bad for my bet that Leicester will have their former, very successful coach, N Pearson back at the helmet for this game. Under Sven or his interim coaches this would have been a great bet.
7.56 on the Brighton away win at Southampton? I know, I can read the league table, but not so long ago Brighton were the better side. Brighton will be able to recall several previously injured players.
French League
Lyon - Rennes
This match takes place tonight and my choice will be the home win. Lisandro Lopez, the classy Lyon striker, is finally fit again and he is line for his come back in this match. His offensive colleague M Bastos is also back to fitness and offensively it looks perfect for Lyon. Defence man Lovren is not yet fit.M�Vila is included in the Rennes squad, but Boukari, Mangane and Brahimi will be missing. Also Rennes look OK ahead of this match. I guess that we are offered these decent odds on the home win just because Lyon will play against Ajax on Tuesday next week. My guess is that an optimistic Lyon side will be the winners in both these fixtures.
Chris
